The electricity crisis in Tajikistan has taken yet a further turn for the worse, as state power company Barki Tojik announces that supplies to the capital, Dushanbe, will henceforth be limited to 15 hours per day. Even worse, those parts of the country currently receiving two-three hours of electricity daily _ namely the Sogd and Khatlon regions _ face yet further cuts.

Luxury Goods Sale in Tajikistan

Luxury Goods Sale in Tajikistan

The most desperate aspect of all this hardship, however, is that it is eminently avoidable and has been caused in part by an unpleasant episode of customary Central Asian bickering.

Back in October, Tajikistan sealed a deal with Turkmenistan to import electricity at $0.03 per kilowatt hour. As agreed, 400 million kilowatt hours of electricity were delivered between November and the end of last year. Under the agreement, the Turkmens agreed to supply a further 1.2 billion kilowatt hours of electricity annually until 2012. While not meeting the disastrous shortfall in power supplies, the agreement would have given the Tajiks much-needed relief and avoided the scale of power cuts seen last year, which virtually brought the country to a standstill as it suffered one of its worst winters in living memory.

Anyway, that deal was scuppered at the start of the month by Uzbekistan, which lies between the two countries and has seemingly refused to agree to a new transit agreement.

Beyond mere comic book villainy, there is a back-story to all this that should shed some light on why it is exactly that Tashkent is behaving the way it is.

According to their official version, the Uzbeks have had technical problems at a local substation, making electricity transits impossible.

Tajik officials, however, are skeptical and say that their requests to visit the site and inspect the pace of repair have been abruptly rebuffed.

Furthermore, Tajik Deputy Energy Minister Pulod Muhiddinov says the Uzbeks promised not to halt Turkmen electricity deliveries if Tajikistan would agreed to buy gas for $249 per 1,000 cubic meters, a pretty hefty sum for Dushanbe.

Tajikistan duly agreed to that arrangement at the end of December, only for the Uzbeks to renege on their word, says Muhiddinov.

Writing at Ferghana.ru, Sanobar Shermatova suggests a further kink in the tale (link in Russian):

The conflict of interests reached its ultimatum at the end of last year, when Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan agreed on sharing water, gas and fuel without consulting Uzbekistan. The reaction came immediately: Uzbekistan announced it would suspend its membership in the Eurasian Economic Community (Eurasec), closed its border with Tajikistan, and increased its gas prices to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The offence even reached the Russian leadership, which was called upon to act as referee as Uzbekistan sought Moscow’s support in its neighborly dispute.

The specifics of this account are not altogether clear or certain, not least the supposed tri-partite agreement from late last year, which does not appear to have been reported anywhere. What is certain, however, is that Uzbekistan has chosen to throw itself into open hostility with its neighbors.

Nurek Damn!

Nurek Damn!

In turn, Tajikistan has warned that now it is running short of electricity, it has been forced to drain additional supplies from the Nurek and Kairakkum reservoirs to generate hydropower. In doing so, it will cause a water shortage over the summer months in downstream nations _ namely Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (ironically) _ and thereby possibly result in the ruin of vital cash crops in those countries. Uzbekistan in particular, with its heavy reliance on agricultural output for export revenue and internal consumption needs, could be catastrophically affected for yet another year.

Unwisely sticking his oar in and appearing to take a pro-Uzbek stance, Russian President Dimitry Medvedev also spoke out on the water issue while visiting Uzbekistan a few days ago by suggesting that Tajikistan’s grand plans to build a number of hydropower stations along its rivers could cause regional resource crises and should be discussed by all Central Asian nations. This is a particularly strange observation, since Russia is involved in building the giant Rogun power station on Vakhsh river _ a point not lost on the Tajik foreign ministry, which duly complained to the Russian embassy in Dushanbe.

This signal appeared to suggest that Moscow will likely favour Uzbek reasons in future regional disputes, which is yet another intriguing twist in the broader play for influence in Central Asia. Russia’s services as a fig-leaf for Uzbekistan’s gross human rights violations have become effectively redundant, since Tashkent clearly doesn’t give a damn what anyone thinks of it anyway. But Uzbekistan has now found this new purpose for its former Soviet comrade _ one that could avoid Karimov falling back into the arms of his erstwhile American sponsors. In return, Medvedev bagged a useful gas deal that will help replenish Gazprom export reserves and also secured a guarantee to expand the Central Asia-Center gas pipeline, which will be needed if Turkmenistan is to meet its ambitious gas contracts.

Not Tajik

Bob Hope: Not Tajik

To put a new spin on the old gag, the United States had Johnny Cash and Bob Hope; Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have no cash and no hope. Reliant on Russian largesse, they have little room for maneuver, with the slender exception of the water issue. Abusing of that, however, would be self-destructive in the extreme and ultimately pointless.

Of course, this whole ugly spectacle is fundamentally needless and another reminder of why the collapse of the Soviet Union was, if not a tragedy, a wretched inconvenience for this part of the world. Countless summits have been held over the years to regulate cooperation, but again and again, the rhetoric and high hopes have been dashed by petty disputes and pride.

And, if isn’t too trite to point out, the regular long-suffering citizens of Central Asia will be the ones that continue to bear the brunt.

Advertisements